Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Gamba Osaka
vs
07:00
Fagiano Okayama
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Gamba Osaka
41%
Draw
27%
Fagiano Okayama
31%
Expected goals
1.60–1.30
Gamba Osaka · Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–2 (8.2%), 2–1 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Gamba Osaka score at least twice in 47%; Fagiano Okayama in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Fagiano Okayama goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Gamba Osaka goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 25% | 25% |
| Market reference | 41% | 27% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 27% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Gamba Osaka
| 20 Sept | H | vs Vissel Kobe | 0–1 | L |
Fagiano Okayama
| 19 Sept | H | vs Kyoto Sanga | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.