Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Gamba Osaka
vs
06:00
Cerezo Osaka
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Gamba Osaka
43%
Draw
26%
Cerezo Osaka
30%
Expected goals
1.52–1.29
Gamba Osaka · Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.5%), 2–1 (9.7%), 1–0 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Gamba Osaka win is 2–1 (9.7%).
Gamba Osaka score at least twice in 45%; Cerezo Osaka in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Cerezo Osaka goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Gamba Osaka goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Market reference | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 26% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Gamba Osaka
| 20 Sept | H | vs Vissel Kobe | 0–1 | L |
Cerezo Osaka
| 19 Sept | A | vs V-Varen Nagasaki | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.