FC Tokyo vs Urawa Red Diamonds — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
FC Tokyo
vs
06:00
Urawa Red Diamonds
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
FC Tokyo
57%
Draw
22%
Urawa Red Diamonds
21%
Expected goals
1.83–1.05
FC Tokyo · Urawa Red Diamonds
FC Tokyo win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.5%), 2–1 (10.5%), 1–0 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely FC Tokyo win is 2–1 (10.5%).
FC Tokyo score at least twice in 55%; Urawa Red Diamonds in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Urawa Red Diamonds goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FC Tokyo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market reference | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 57% | 22% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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FC Tokyo
| 19 Sept | H | vs Nagoya Grampus | 1–0 | W |
Urawa Red Diamonds
| 19 Sept | H | vs Tokyo Verdy | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.