FC Tokyo vs Mito HollyHock — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
FC Tokyo
vs
07:00
Mito HollyHock
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
FC Tokyo
74%
Draw
17%
Mito HollyHock
9%
Expected goals
2.25–0.74
FC Tokyo · Mito HollyHock
FC Tokyo win 74% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13.3%), 1–0 (11.8%), 2–1 (10.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
FC Tokyo score at least twice in 67%; Mito HollyHock in 17%.
Scoreline distribution
Mito HollyHock goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.3 | 10.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FC Tokyo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Market reference | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Metis Forecast | 74% | 17% | 9% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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FC Tokyo
| 19 Sept | H | vs Nagoya Grampus | 1–0 | W |
Mito HollyHock
| 19 Sept | A | vs Yokohama F. Marinos | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.