FC Tokyo vs Kashima Antlers — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
FC Tokyo
vs
06:00
Kashima Antlers
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
FC Tokyo
46%
Draw
26%
Kashima Antlers
28%
Expected goals
1.82–1.24
FC Tokyo · Kashima Antlers
FC Tokyo win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.1%), 1–2 (7.8%), 2–1 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely FC Tokyo win is 2–1 (7.7%).
FC Tokyo score at least twice in 53%; Kashima Antlers in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Kashima Antlers goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FC Tokyo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Market reference | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 26% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 2.07–1.04 → 1.82–1.24
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Recent form
FC Tokyo
| 19 Sept | H | vs Nagoya Grampus | 1–0 | W |
Kashima Antlers
| 19 Sept | A | vs Kawasaki Frontale | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.