FC Tokyo vs Kashima — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
J1 League·Saturday, 7 November 2026·06:00
FC Tokyo
vs
06:00
Kashima
FC TokyoExpected goalsKashima
1.89 xG1.20 xG
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
FC Tokyo
54%
Draw
24%
Kashima
22%
Expected goals
1.89–1.20
FC Tokyo · Kashima
FC Tokyo win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.2%), 2–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely FC Tokyo win is 2–1 (9.7%).
FC Tokyo score at least twice in 56%; Kashima in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Kashima goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FC Tokyo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score60%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Over 4.5 goals20%
Team scoring & clean sheets
FC Tokyo clean sheet30%
Kashima clean sheet15%
FC Tokyo score 2+56%
Kashima score 2+34%
FC Tokyo score 3+29%
Kashima score 3+12%
Most likely scores
1–111.2%
2–19.8%
2–08.1%
1–07.8%
1–26.2%
3–16.1%
What changed overnight?
vs previous runFC Tokyo win47% → 54% ▲+7.4pp
Draw26% → 24% ▼-1.9pp
Kashima win27% → 22% ▼-5.5pp
xG 1.78–1.28 → 1.89–1.20
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Recent form
FC Tokyo
| 19 Sept | H | vs Nagoya Grampus | 1–0 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.