Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Fagiano Okayama
vs
05:00
FC Tokyo
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Fagiano Okayama
26%
Draw
28%
FC Tokyo
46%
Expected goals
1.06–1.52
Fagiano Okayama · FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.4%), 0–1 (10.1%), 1–2 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely FC Tokyo win is 0–1 (10.1%).
Fagiano Okayama score at least twice in 29%; FC Tokyo in 45%.
Scoreline distribution
FC Tokyo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 13.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Fagiano Okayama goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Market reference | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Metis Forecast | 26% | 28% | 46% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Fagiano Okayama
| 19 Sept | H | vs Kyoto Sanga | 1–2 | L |
FC Tokyo
| 19 Sept | H | vs Nagoya Grampus | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.