Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Cerezo Osaka
vs
05:00
Yokohama F. Marinos
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cerezo Osaka
44%
Draw
26%
Yokohama F. Marinos
31%
Expected goals
1.54–1.24
Cerezo Osaka · Yokohama F. Marinos
Cerezo Osaka win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–0 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Cerezo Osaka win is 2–1 (9.0%).
Cerezo Osaka score at least twice in 45%; Yokohama F. Marinos in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Yokohama F. Marinos goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cerezo Osaka goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 27% | 29% |
| Market reference | 44% | 26% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 26% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Cerezo Osaka
| 19 Sept | A | vs V-Varen Nagasaki | 1–1 | D |
Yokohama F. Marinos
| 19 Sept | H | vs Mito HollyHock | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.