Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Cerezo Osaka
vs
06:00
JEF United Chiba
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cerezo Osaka
56%
Draw
24%
JEF United Chiba
20%
Expected goals
1.82–1.00
Cerezo Osaka · JEF United Chiba
Cerezo Osaka win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.2%), 1–0 (10.2%), 2–1 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Cerezo Osaka win is 1–0 (10.2%).
Cerezo Osaka score at least twice in 54%; JEF United Chiba in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
JEF United Chiba goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cerezo Osaka goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market reference | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 24% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Cerezo Osaka
| 19 Sept | A | vs V-Varen Nagasaki | 1–1 | D |
JEF United Chiba
| 19 Sept | A | vs Shimizu S-Pulse | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.