Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Cerezo Osaka
vs
06:00
FC Tokyo
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cerezo Osaka
19%
Draw
22%
FC Tokyo
60%
Expected goals
1.04–1.85
Cerezo Osaka · FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (12.0%), 0–1 (11.2%), 1–1 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Cerezo Osaka score at least twice in 27%; FC Tokyo in 57%.
Scoreline distribution
FC Tokyo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cerezo Osaka goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Market reference | 19% | 22% | 60% |
| Metis Forecast | 19% | 22% | 60% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.04–1.94 → 1.04–1.85
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Cerezo Osaka
| 19 Sept | A | vs V-Varen Nagasaki | 1–1 | D |
FC Tokyo
| 19 Sept | H | vs Nagoya Grampus | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.