Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Avispa Fukuoka
vs
06:00
V-Varen Nagasaki
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Avispa Fukuoka
46%
Draw
27%
V-Varen Nagasaki
27%
Expected goals
1.40–1.08
Avispa Fukuoka · V-Varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.0%), 1–0 (12.3%), 2–1 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Avispa Fukuoka win is 1–0 (12.3%).
Avispa Fukuoka score at least twice in 41%; V-Varen Nagasaki in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
V-Varen Nagasaki goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Avispa Fukuoka goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 29% | 35% |
| Market reference | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Avispa Fukuoka
| 19 Sept | H | vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0–1 | L |
V-Varen Nagasaki
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cerezo Osaka | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.