Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Avispa Fukuoka
vs
06:00
Fagiano Okayama
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Avispa Fukuoka
28%
Draw
32%
Fagiano Okayama
40%
Expected goals
1.09–1.31
Avispa Fukuoka · Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (15.0%), 0–1 (10.7%), 0–0 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Avispa Fukuoka score at least twice in 30%; Fagiano Okayama in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Fagiano Okayama goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 15.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Avispa Fukuoka goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market reference | 28% | 32% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 28% | 32% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Avispa Fukuoka
| 19 Sept | H | vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0–1 | L |
Fagiano Okayama
| 19 Sept | H | vs Kyoto Sanga | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.