PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis — Super League Greece forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
PAOK
75%
Draw
16%
Asteras Tripolis
9%
Expected goals
2.27–0.67
PAOK · Asteras Tripolis
PAOK win 75% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (14.1%), 1–0 (12.0%), 3–0 (10.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 44% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
PAOK score at least twice in 67%; Asteras Tripolis in 15%.
Scoreline distribution
Asteras Tripolis goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAOK goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 80% | 19% | 1% |
| Market reference | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Metis Forecast | 75% | 16% | 9% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| PAOK | 1.29 |
| Draw | 5.67 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 8.97 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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PAOK
| 23 Aug | H | vs Levadeiakos | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Atromitos | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Panathinaikos | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Aris | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Panetolikos | 3–1 | W |
Asteras Tripolis
| 23 Aug | A | vs Panetolikos | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Olympiakos | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Iraklis | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs AEK | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs OFI Crete | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | PAOK (Home · 4 matches) | Asteras Tripolis (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 4.67 |
Home stats use PAOK's home record; away stats use Asteras Tripolis's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.