Panetolikos vs PAOK — Super League Greece result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Panetolikos
14%
Draw
22%
PAOK
64%
pick · result
Final score
1–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a PAOK win 63.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a PAOK win. Expected goals 0.81–1.83 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–1 (14.0%), 0–2 (12.4%), 1–2 (11.4%). It finished 1–3.
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Panetolikos
| 23 Aug | H | vs Asteras Tripolis | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Kalamata | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Levadeiakos | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Panathinaikos | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 1–3 | L |
PAOK
| 23 Aug | H | vs Levadeiakos | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Atromitos | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Panathinaikos | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Aris | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Panetolikos | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Panetolikos (Home · 5 matches) | PAOK (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Panetolikos's home record; away stats use PAOK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.