Panetolikos vs PAOK — Super League Greece forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Panetolikos
16%
Draw
24%
PAOK
61%
Expected goals
0.84–1.78
Panetolikos · PAOK
PAOK win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13.1%), 0–2 (11.8%), 1–1 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Panetolikos score at least twice in 21%; PAOK in 54%.
Scoreline distribution
PAOK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Panetolikos goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Market reference | 16% | 24% | 61% |
| Metis Forecast | 16% | 24% | 61% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panetolikos | 5.88 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.42 | 5.60 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.50 | 4.74 | 5.88 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.97 | 4.00 | 3.70 | 3.84 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 3.84 | 3.54 | 4.00 Bet365 |
| PAOK | 1.60 | 1.62 | 1.57 | 1.60 | 1.62 | 1.57 | 1.55 | 1.58 | 1.53 | 1.62 Bet365 |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Panetolikos
| 23 Aug | H | vs Asteras Tripolis | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Kalamata | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Levadeiakos | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Panathinaikos | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 1–3 | L |
PAOK
| 23 Aug | H | vs Levadeiakos | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Atromitos | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Panathinaikos | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Aris | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Panetolikos | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Panetolikos (Home · 3 matches) | PAOK (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Panetolikos's home record; away stats use PAOK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.