Panathinaikos vs PAOK — Super League Greece result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Panathinaikos
47%
pick · result
Draw
28%
PAOK
25%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Panathinaikos win 46.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Panathinaikos win. Expected goals 1.58–1.15 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 2–1 (9.7%), 1–0 (9.5%). It finished 3–1.
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Panathinaikos
| 31 Aug | A | vs Levadeiakos | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Sept | H | vs Kifisia | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Panetolikos | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Kalamata | 1–0 | W |
PAOK
| 23 Aug | H | vs Levadeiakos | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Atromitos | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Panathinaikos | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Aris | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Panetolikos | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Panathinaikos (Home · 5 matches) | PAOK (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.80 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Panathinaikos's home record; away stats use PAOK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.