Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos — Super League Greece result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 34.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Panathinaikos
73%
pick · result
Draw
18%
Panetolikos
9%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Panathinaikos win 72.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Panathinaikos win. Expected goals 2.21–0.71 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (13.5%), 1–0 (11.9%), 2–1 (10.1%). It finished 3–0.
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Panathinaikos
| 31 Aug | A | vs Levadeiakos | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Sept | H | vs Kifisia | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Panetolikos | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Kalamata | 1–0 | W |
Panetolikos
| 23 Aug | H | vs Asteras Tripolis | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Kalamata | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Levadeiakos | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Panathinaikos | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Panathinaikos (Home · 5 matches) | Panetolikos (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.80 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Panathinaikos's home record; away stats use Panetolikos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.