Panathinaikos vs AEK — Super League Greece forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Panathinaikos
47%
Draw
27%
AEK
26%
Expected goals
1.57–1.09
Panathinaikos · AEK
Panathinaikos win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–0 (10.0%), 2–1 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Panathinaikos win is 1–0 (10.0%).
Panathinaikos score at least twice in 46%; AEK in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
AEK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Panathinaikos goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 2.38 |
| Draw | 3.25 |
| AEK | 3.05 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Panathinaikos
| 31 Aug | A | vs Levadeiakos | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Sept | H | vs Kifisia | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Panetolikos | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Kalamata | 1–0 | W |
AEK
| 22 Aug | H | vs Iraklis | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Kifisia | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Aris | 5–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Asteras Tripolis | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Volos NFC | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Panathinaikos (Home · 4 matches) | AEK (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Panathinaikos's home record; away stats use AEK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.