OFI vs PAOK — Super League Greece forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
OFI
20%
Draw
24%
PAOK
56%
Expected goals
0.94–1.67
OFI · PAOK
PAOK win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (12.6%), 1–1 (11.5%), 1–2 (10.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
OFI score at least twice in 24%; PAOK in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
PAOK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.6 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OFI goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Market reference | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| Metis Forecast | 20% | 24% | 56% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| OFI | 4.63 |
| Draw | 3.84 |
| PAOK | 1.71 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
PAOK
| 23 Aug | H | vs Levadeiakos | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Atromitos | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Panathinaikos | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Aris | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Panetolikos | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | OFI (Home · no matches) | PAOK (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.67 |
Home stats use OFI's home record; away stats use PAOK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.