OFI vs Asteras Tripolis — Super League Greece forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
OFI
43%
Draw
30%
Asteras Tripolis
27%
Expected goals
1.38–0.99
OFI · Asteras Tripolis
OFI win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.2%), 1–0 (11.0%), 0–0 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely OFI win is 1–0 (11.0%).
OFI score at least twice in 40%; Asteras Tripolis in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Asteras Tripolis goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 14.2 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OFI goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market reference | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 30% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFI | 2.23 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.25 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.18 | 2.16 | 2.25 Betano |
| Draw | 3.16 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.85 | 3.25 Betfair SB |
| Asteras Tripolis | 3.58 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.41 | 3.45 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.95 | 3.58 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Asteras Tripolis
| 23 Aug | A | vs Panetolikos | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Olympiakos | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Iraklis | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs AEK | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs OFI Crete | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | OFI (Home · no matches) | Asteras Tripolis (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 4.00 |
Home stats use OFI's home record; away stats use Asteras Tripolis's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.