🇬🇷 Super League Greece·Sunday, 30 August 2026·18:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Kifisia | 8.66 | 8.66 |
| Draw | 5.28 | 5.28 |
| AEK | 1.32 | 1.32 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketKifisia
10%
Draw
17%
AEK
73%
Kifisia 0.71 xGexpected goals1.95 xG AEK
AEK win 73% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 46% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (16.5%).
Kifisia score at least twice in 16%; AEK in 61%.
0–1 16.5%0–2 14.4%1–2 13.0%1–1 8.1%0–3 7.8%1–3 7.0%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 16.5 | 14.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 8.1 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Kifisia goals · columns = AEK goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score46%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Kifisia clean sheet11%
AEK clean sheet49%
Kifisia score 2+16%
AEK score 2+61%
Kifisia score 3+4%
Model vs market
| Source | Kifisia | Draw | AEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 11% | 27% | 62% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 10% | 17% | 73% |
| Metis Forecast | 10% | 17% | 73% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Kifisia
| 25 Aug | A | vs Levadeiakos | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Larisa | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Panathinaikos | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Aris | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Sept | A | vs OFI Crete | 3–1 | W |
AEK
| 24 Aug | H | vs Panserraikos | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Asteras Tripolis | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Levadeiakos | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Larisa | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Sept | H | vs Volos NFC | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 26 | AEKvsKifisia | 3 – 0 |
| 5 Oct 25 | KifisiavsAEK | 2 – 3 |
Kifisia: 0W 0D 2L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Kifisia (Home) | AEK (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 43.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 37.5% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.56 | 2.44 |
Home stats use Kifisia's home record; away stats use AEK's away record this season.