🇬🇷 Super League Greece·Sunday, 30 August 2026·17:15
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Atromitos | 4.73 | 4.73 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.78 |
| PAOK | 1.71 | 1.71 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketAtromitos
19%
Draw
25%
PAOK
56%
Atromitos 0.85 xGexpected goals1.59 xG PAOK
PAOK win 56% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 46% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (14.1%).
Atromitos score at least twice in 21%; PAOK in 48%.
0–1 14.1%1–1 11.6%0–2 11.4%1–2 10.3%0–0 8.8%1–0 6.4%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Atromitos goals · columns = PAOK goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score46%
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Over 4.5 goals10%
Atromitos clean sheet20%
PAOK clean sheet43%
Atromitos score 2+21%
PAOK score 2+48%
Atromitos score 3+6%
Model vs market
| Source | Atromitos | Draw | PAOK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 22% | 28% | 50% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Metis Forecast | 19% | 25% | 56% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Atromitos
| 23 Aug | A | vs Panetolikos | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs PAOK | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Aris | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Panserraikos | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Sept | H | vs Larisa | 1–1 | D |
PAOK
| 24 Aug | H | vs Larisa | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Atromitos | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs OFI Crete | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Panetolikos | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Sept | A | vs Asteras Tripolis | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
| 14 Dec 25 | AtromitosvsPAOK | 2 – 0 |
| 31 Aug 25 | PAOKvsAtromitos | 1 – 0 |
Atromitos: 1W 0D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Atromitos (Home) | PAOK (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 55.6% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 55.6% | 62.5% |
| Clean sheet | 27.8% | 31.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.61 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Atromitos's home record; away stats use PAOK's away record this season.