🇬🇷 Super League Greece·Sunday, 30 August 2026·18:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis | 10.25 | 10.25 |
| Draw | 5.19 | 5.19 |
| Olympiakos | 1.29 | 1.29 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketAsteras Tripolis
8%
Draw
17%
Olympiakos
75%
Asteras Tripolis 0.64 xGexpected goals2.02 xG Olympiakos
Olympiakos win 75% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 43% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (16.1%).
Asteras Tripolis score at least twice in 13%; Olympiakos in 62%.
0–1 16.1%0–2 15.2%1–2 11.8%0–3 9.0%1–1 8.2%1–3 7.0%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 16.1 | 15.2 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Asteras Tripolis goals · columns = Olympiakos goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score43%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Asteras Tripolis clean sheet11%
Olympiakos clean sheet52%
Asteras Tripolis score 2+13%
Olympiakos score 2+62%
Asteras Tripolis score 3+3%
Model vs market
| Source | Asteras Tripolis | Draw | Olympiakos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 7% | 25% | 69% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 8% | 17% | 75% |
| Metis Forecast | 8% | 17% | 75% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Asteras Tripolis
| 23 Aug | A | vs Olympiakos | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs AEK | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Larisa | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Volos NFC | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 3–3 | D |
Olympiakos
| 23 Aug | H | vs Asteras Tripolis | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Volos NFC | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Panserraikos | 5–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Panathinaikos | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sept | H | vs Levadeiakos | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
| 4 Feb 26 | Asteras TripolisvsOlympiakos | 0 – 3 |
| 23 Aug 25 | OlympiakosvsAsteras Tripolis | 2 – 0 |
Asteras Tripolis: 0W 0D 2L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Asteras Tripolis (Home) | Olympiakos (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 55.6% | 43.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 55.6% | 37.5% |
| Clean sheet | 22.2% | 56.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.72 | 2.19 |
Home stats use Asteras Tripolis's home record; away stats use Olympiakos's away record this season.