Asteras Tripolis vs Levadeiakos — Super League Greece forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Asteras Tripolis
48%
Draw
30%
Levadeiakos
22%
Expected goals
1.37–0.94
Asteras Tripolis · Levadeiakos
Asteras Tripolis win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14.2%), 1–1 (13.9%), 0–0 (10.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Asteras Tripolis score at least twice in 40%; Levadeiakos in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Levadeiakos goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Asteras Tripolis goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market reference | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 30% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis | 1.99 |
| Draw | 3.18 |
| Levadeiakos | 4.14 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Asteras Tripolis
| 23 Aug | A | vs Panetolikos | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Olympiakos | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Iraklis | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs AEK | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs OFI Crete | 2–2 | D |
Levadeiakos
| 23 Aug | A | vs PAOK | 0–4 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Panathinaikos | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Panetolikos | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Kifisia | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Olympiakos | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Asteras Tripolis (Home · 4 matches) | Levadeiakos (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Asteras Tripolis's home record; away stats use Levadeiakos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.