Asteras Tripolis vs AEK — Super League Greece result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 31.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Asteras Tripolis
11%
Draw
20%
result
AEK
69%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 19.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an AEK win. Expected goals 0.70–1.88 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–1 (16.0%), 0–2 (14.1%), 1–2 (11.8%). It finished 1–1.
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Asteras Tripolis
| 23 Aug | A | vs Panetolikos | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Olympiakos | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Iraklis | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs AEK | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs OFI Crete | 2–2 | D |
AEK
| 22 Aug | H | vs Iraklis | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Kifisia | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Aris | 5–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Asteras Tripolis | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Volos NFC | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Asteras Tripolis (Home · 5 matches) | AEK (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.60 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Asteras Tripolis's home record; away stats use AEK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.