Aris vs Panetolikos — Super League Greece forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Aris
71%
Draw
18%
Panetolikos
11%
Expected goals
1.88–0.69
Aris · Panetolikos
Aris win 71% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16.8%), 2–0 (14.6%), 2–1 (12.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 43% of simulations.
Those three cover 43% of outcomes; the other 57% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Aris score at least twice in 58%; Panetolikos in 15%.
Scoreline distribution
Panetolikos goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 16.8 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.6 | 12.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Aris goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 64% | 27% | 10% |
| Market reference | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 71% | 18% | 11% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Aris | 1.36 |
| Draw | 4.93 |
| Panetolikos | 8.02 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Aris
| 22 Aug | A | vs Kalamata | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs OFI Crete | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs AEK | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs PAOK | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Iraklis | 0–0 | D |
Panetolikos
| 23 Aug | H | vs Asteras Tripolis | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Kalamata | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Levadeiakos | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Panathinaikos | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Aris (Home · 4 matches) | Panetolikos (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Aris's home record; away stats use Panetolikos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.