Aris vs OFI Crete — Super League Greece result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Aris
57%
pick · result
Draw
24%
OFI Crete
19%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Aris win 57.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Aris win. Expected goals 1.65–0.87 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.8%), 2–0 (11.4%), 1–1 (11.3%). It finished 2–1.
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Aris
| 22 Aug | A | vs Kalamata | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs OFI Crete | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs AEK | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs PAOK | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Iraklis | 0–0 | D |
OFI Crete
| 23 Aug | H | vs Volos NFC | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Aris | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Kifisia | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Olympiakos | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Asteras Tripolis | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Aris (Home · 2 matches) | OFI Crete (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Aris's home record; away stats use OFI Crete's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.