🇬🇷 Super League Greece·Sunday, 30 August 2026·16:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Aris | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| OFI Crete | 4.88 | 4.88 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketAris
58%
Draw
24%
OFI Crete
19%
Aris 1.65 xGexpected goals0.84 xG OFI Crete
Aris win 58% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 46% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (13.8%).
Aris score at least twice in 50%; OFI Crete in 21%.
1–0 13.8%2–0 11.7%1–1 11.2%2–1 10.2%0–0 8.4%0–1 6.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Aris goals · columns = OFI Crete goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score46%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Aris clean sheet43%
OFI Crete clean sheet19%
Aris score 2+50%
OFI Crete score 2+21%
Aris score 3+23%
Model vs market
| Source | Aris | Draw | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 61% | 27% | 11% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 58% | 24% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 24% | 19% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Aris
| 23 Aug | H | vs Volos NFC | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Panetolikos | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Atromitos | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Kifisia | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Sept | H | vs Panserraikos | 1–1 | D |
OFI Crete
| 30 Aug | A | vs Panserraikos | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Levadeiakos | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Sept | H | vs Kifisia | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Oct | H | vs Aris | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
| 10 May 26 | ArisvsOFI Crete | 3 – 1 |
| 3 May 26 | OFI CretevsAris | 0 – 2 |
| 22 Mar 26 | ArisvsOFI Crete | 0 – 2 |
| 4 Oct 25 | OFI CretevsAris | 3 – 0 |
Aris: 2W 0D 2L in last 4
Model context
| Stat | Aris (Home) | OFI Crete (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 62.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 31.2% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 37.5% | 12.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.06 | 3.31 |
Home stats use Aris's home record; away stats use OFI Crete's away record this season.