Aris vs Atromitos — Super League Greece forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Aris
58%
Draw
25%
Atromitos
18%
Expected goals
1.70–0.84
Aris · Atromitos
Aris win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.9%), 1–1 (11.6%), 2–0 (11.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Aris score at least twice in 51%; Atromitos in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Atromitos goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Aris goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Market reference | 58% | 25% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 25% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Aris | 1.66 |
| Draw | 3.78 |
| Atromitos | 5.12 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Aris
| 22 Aug | A | vs Kalamata | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs OFI Crete | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs AEK | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs PAOK | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Iraklis | 0–0 | D |
Atromitos
| 22 Aug | A | vs Olympiakos | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs PAOK | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Kalamata | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Iraklis | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Kifisia | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Aris (Home · 3 matches) | Atromitos (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Aris's home record; away stats use Atromitos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.