AEK vs Panetolikos — Super League Greece forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
AEK
87%
Draw
9%
Panetolikos
4%
Expected goals
2.52–0.52
AEK · Panetolikos
AEK win 87% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (16.8%), 1–0 (14.1%), 3–0 (12.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 39% of simulations.
Those three cover 44% of outcomes; the other 56% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
AEK score at least twice in 75%; Panetolikos in 10%.
Scoreline distribution
Panetolikos goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 16.8 | 10.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AEK goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Market reference | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| Metis Forecast | 87% | 9% | 4% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| AEK | 1.11 |
| Draw | 9.32 |
| Panetolikos | 18.11 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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AEK
| 22 Aug | H | vs Iraklis | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Kifisia | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Aris | 5–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Asteras Tripolis | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Volos NFC | 2–1 | W |
Panetolikos
| 23 Aug | H | vs Asteras Tripolis | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Kalamata | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Levadeiakos | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Panathinaikos | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AEK (Home · 3 matches) | Panetolikos (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.33 |
Home stats use AEK's home record; away stats use Panetolikos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.