AEK vs Levadeiakos — Super League Greece forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
AEK
84%
Draw
11%
Levadeiakos
5%
Expected goals
2.61–0.59
AEK · Levadeiakos
AEK win 84% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (14.8%), 3–0 (12.1%), 1–0 (11.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 42% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
AEK score at least twice in 75%; Levadeiakos in 12%.
Scoreline distribution
Levadeiakos goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.8 | 9.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AEK goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 85% | 15% | 0% |
| Market reference | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| Metis Forecast | 84% | 11% | 5% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| AEK | 1.15 |
| Draw | 7.76 |
| Levadeiakos | 15.26 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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AEK
| 22 Aug | H | vs Iraklis | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Kifisia | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Aris | 5–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Asteras Tripolis | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Volos NFC | 2–1 | W |
Levadeiakos
| 23 Aug | A | vs PAOK | 0–4 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Panathinaikos | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Panetolikos | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Kifisia | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Olympiakos | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AEK (Home · 4 matches) | Levadeiakos (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | 1.50 |
Home stats use AEK's home record; away stats use Levadeiakos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.