AEK vs Aris — Super League Greece result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
AEK
67%
pick · result
Draw
21%
Aris
12%
Final score
5–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an AEK win 67.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an AEK win. Expected goals 2.02–0.79 against 5–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (12.5%), 1–0 (12.1%), 2–1 (10.6%). It finished 5–0.
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AEK
| 22 Aug | H | vs Iraklis | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Kifisia | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Aris | 5–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Asteras Tripolis | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Volos NFC | 2–1 | W |
Aris
| 22 Aug | A | vs Kalamata | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs OFI Crete | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs AEK | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs PAOK | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Iraklis | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AEK (Home · 4 matches) | Aris (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | 3.60 |
Home stats use AEK's home record; away stats use Aris's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.