Twente vs Ajax — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Twente
42%
Draw
24%
Ajax
34%
Expected goals
1.81–1.60
Twente · Ajax
Twente win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.3%), 2–1 (8.6%), 1–2 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 68% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Twente win is 2–1 (8.7%).
Twente score at least twice in 54%; Ajax in 48%.
Scoreline distribution
Ajax goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Twente goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Market reference | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 24% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Twente | 2.28 |
| Draw | 3.92 |
| Ajax | 2.83 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Twente
| 9 Aug | A | vs Heerenveen | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cambuur | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Groningen | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Telstar | 1–0 | W |
Ajax
| 9 Aug | A | vs PEC Zwolle | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Heerenveen | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Telstar | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs PSV | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Fortuna Sittard | 5–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Twente (Home · 5 matches) | Ajax (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 4.40 |
Home stats use Twente's home record; away stats use Ajax's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.