Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen — Eredivisie result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sparta Rotterdam
38%
top pick
Draw
25%
Heerenveen
37%
result
Final score
0–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Heerenveen win 36.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sparta Rotterdam win. Expected goals 1.60–1.61 against 0–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.3%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–2 (7.7%). It finished 0–4.
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Sparta Rotterdam
| 9 Aug | H | vs Feyenoord | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Telstar | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Utrecht | 3–3 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Excelsior | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 2–2 | D |
Heerenveen
| 9 Aug | H | vs Twente | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Ajax | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Willem II | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs AZ | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sparta Rotterdam (Home · 6 matches) | Heerenveen (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.83 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Sparta Rotterdam's home record; away stats use Heerenveen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.