Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sparta Rotterdam
17%
Draw
19%
Ajax
65%
Expected goals
1.20–2.63
Sparta Rotterdam · Ajax
Ajax win 65% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (7.9%), 1–1 (7.8%), 1–3 (7.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 23% of outcomes; the other 77% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sparta Rotterdam score at least twice in 34%; Ajax in 72%.
Scoreline distribution
Ajax goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 12% | 16% | 72% |
| Market reference | 17% | 19% | 65% |
| Metis Forecast | 17% | 19% | 65% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 5.50 |
| Draw | 4.92 |
| Ajax | 1.49 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.11–2.78 → 1.20–2.63
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Sparta Rotterdam
| 9 Aug | H | vs Feyenoord | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Telstar | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Utrecht | 3–3 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Excelsior | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 2–2 | D |
Ajax
| 9 Aug | A | vs PEC Zwolle | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Heerenveen | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Telstar | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs PSV | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Fortuna Sittard | 5–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sparta Rotterdam (Home · 5 matches) | Ajax (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 4.75 |
Home stats use Sparta Rotterdam's home record; away stats use Ajax's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.