Heerenveen vs Feyenoord — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Heerenveen
22%
Draw
21%
Feyenoord
57%
Expected goals
1.34–2.21
Heerenveen · Feyenoord
Feyenoord win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (9.9%), 1–1 (8.9%), 0–2 (7.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 66% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Heerenveen score at least twice in 39%; Feyenoord in 65%.
Scoreline distribution
Feyenoord goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Heerenveen goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Market reference | 22% | 21% | 57% |
| Metis Forecast | 22% | 21% | 57% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 4.33 |
| Draw | 4.43 |
| Feyenoord | 1.68 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Heerenveen
| 9 Aug | H | vs Twente | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Ajax | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Willem II | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs AZ | 2–3 | L |
Feyenoord
| 9 Aug | A | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Cambuur | 5–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Den Haag | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs NEC | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Heerenveen (Home · 5 matches) | Feyenoord (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 4.67 |
Home stats use Heerenveen's home record; away stats use Feyenoord's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.