Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Groningen
54%
Draw
22%
Sparta Rotterdam
23%
Expected goals
2.21–1.43
Groningen · Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9.2%), 2–1 (9.1%), 2–2 (6.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 69% of simulations.
Those three cover 25% of outcomes; the other 75% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Groningen win is 2–1 (9.1%).
Groningen score at least twice in 65%; Sparta Rotterdam in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Sparta Rotterdam goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: Groningen goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Market reference | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 54% | 22% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Groningen | 1.77 |
| Draw | 4.18 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 4.00 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Groningen
| 9 Aug | H | vs Utrecht | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Den Haag | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs PSV | 1–5 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Twente | 2–2 | D |
Sparta Rotterdam
| 9 Aug | H | vs Feyenoord | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Telstar | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Utrecht | 3–3 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Excelsior | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Groningen (Home · 5 matches) | Sparta Rotterdam (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.40 | 4.50 |
Home stats use Groningen's home record; away stats use Sparta Rotterdam's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.