Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar — Eredivisie forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Go Ahead Eagles
62%
Draw
22%
Telstar
16%
Expected goals
2.19–1.13
Go Ahead Eagles · Telstar
Go Ahead Eagles win 62% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.6%), 1–1 (10.0%), 2–0 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Go Ahead Eagles score at least twice in 65%; Telstar in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Telstar goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: Go Ahead Eagles goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Market reference | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 62% | 22% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles | 1.58 |
| Draw | 4.23 |
| Telstar | 5.77 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Go Ahead Eagles
| 8 Aug | H | vs Willem II | 4–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Feyenoord | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Den Haag | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs AZ | 2–5 | L |
| 8 Sept | A | vs Utrecht | 3–3 | D |
Telstar
| 8 Aug | A | vs NEC | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ajax | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cambuur | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Twente | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Go Ahead Eagles (Home · 4 matches) | Telstar (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | 1.25 |
Home stats use Go Ahead Eagles's home record; away stats use Telstar's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.