Feyenoord vs Utrecht — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Feyenoord
77%
Draw
14%
Utrecht
9%
Expected goals
2.60–0.90
Feyenoord · Utrecht
Feyenoord win 77% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.0%), 2–0 (10.9%), 3–1 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Feyenoord score at least twice in 75%; Utrecht in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Utrecht goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: Feyenoord goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Market reference | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Metis Forecast | 77% | 14% | 9% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.30 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.30 Betano |
| Draw | 6.64 | 6.00 | 5.80 | 6.77 | 6.60 | 6.00 | 6.50 | 6.30 | 5.42 | 6.77 1xBet |
| Utrecht | 9.79 | 10.00 | 9.00 | 10.40 | 9.25 | 9.00 | 10.00 | 9.70 | 6.86 | 10.40 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Feyenoord
| 9 Aug | A | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Cambuur | 5–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Den Haag | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs NEC | 3–1 | W |
Utrecht
| 9 Aug | A | vs Groningen | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs AZ | 1–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 3–3 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs PSV | 1–6 | L |
| 8 Sept | H | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Feyenoord (Home · 3 matches) | Utrecht (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.33 | 4.25 |
Home stats use Feyenoord's home record; away stats use Utrecht's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.