Excelsior vs Twente — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Excelsior
18%
Draw
20%
Twente
61%
Expected goals
1.19–2.15
Excelsior · Twente
Twente win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (11.1%), 1–1 (9.1%), 0–2 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Excelsior score at least twice in 33%; Twente in 65%.
Scoreline distribution
Twente goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Excelsior goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 22% | 23% | 54% |
| Market reference | 18% | 20% | 61% |
| Metis Forecast | 18% | 20% | 61% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Excelsior | 4.99 |
| Draw | 4.53 |
| Twente | 1.57 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Excelsior
| 7 Aug | A | vs Cambuur | 4–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs PSV | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Willem II | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Sept | A | vs NEC | 2–2 | D |
Twente
| 9 Aug | A | vs Heerenveen | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cambuur | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Groningen | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Telstar | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Excelsior (Home · 4 matches) | Twente (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Excelsior's home record; away stats use Twente's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.