Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles — Eredivisie forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Excelsior
35%
Draw
26%
Go Ahead Eagles
39%
Expected goals
1.65–1.70
Excelsior · Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.2%), 1–2 (9.0%), 2–2 (7.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 67% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Excelsior score at least twice in 49%; Go Ahead Eagles in 51%.
Scoreline distribution
Go Ahead Eagles goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Excelsior goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Market reference | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 26% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.75 |
| Draw | 3.67 |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 2.43 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Excelsior
| 7 Aug | A | vs Cambuur | 4–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs PSV | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Willem II | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Sept | A | vs NEC | 2–2 | D |
Go Ahead Eagles
| 8 Aug | H | vs Willem II | 4–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Feyenoord | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Den Haag | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs AZ | 2–5 | L |
| 8 Sept | A | vs Utrecht | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Excelsior (Home · 4 matches) | Go Ahead Eagles (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 4.80 |
Home stats use Excelsior's home record; away stats use Go Ahead Eagles's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.