AZ vs Twente — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
AZ
45%
Draw
24%
Twente
31%
Expected goals
1.62–1.42
AZ · Twente
AZ win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.1%), 2–1 (10.5%), 1–0 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely AZ win is 2–1 (10.5%).
AZ score at least twice in 49%; Twente in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Twente goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AZ goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 26% | 41% |
| Market reference | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 24% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| AZ | 2.15 |
| Draw | 3.92 |
| Twente | 3.02 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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AZ
| 8 Aug | H | vs Den Haag | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Utrecht | 4–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Heerenveen | 3–2 | W |
Twente
| 9 Aug | A | vs Heerenveen | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cambuur | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Groningen | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Telstar | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AZ (Home · 4 matches) | Twente (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use AZ's home record; away stats use Twente's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.