AZ vs Telstar — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
AZ
79%
Draw
13%
Telstar
9%
Expected goals
2.61–0.88
AZ · Telstar
AZ win 79% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.3%), 2–1 (11.1%), 3–0 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
AZ score at least twice in 76%; Telstar in 22%.
Scoreline distribution
Telstar goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: AZ goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Market reference | 79% | 13% | 9% |
| Metis Forecast | 79% | 13% | 9% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1.24 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.26 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.26 Betano |
| Draw | 7.17 | 6.50 | 6.00 | 7.08 | 6.80 | 6.50 | 7.00 | 6.55 | 5.61 | 7.17 Pinnacle |
| Telstar | 10.14 | 11.00 | 9.50 | 11.30 | 12.00 | 10.00 | 11.00 | 10.50 | 7.34 | 12.00 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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AZ
| 8 Aug | H | vs Den Haag | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Utrecht | 4–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Heerenveen | 3–2 | W |
Telstar
| 8 Aug | A | vs NEC | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ajax | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cambuur | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Twente | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AZ (Home · 4 matches) | Telstar (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 1.25 |
Home stats use AZ's home record; away stats use Telstar's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.