AZ vs Telstar — Eredivisie result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
AZ
78%
pick · result
Draw
13%
Telstar
9%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an AZ win 77.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an AZ win. Expected goals 2.59–0.90 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (11.1%), 2–1 (11.0%), 3–0 (8.9%). It finished 1–0.
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AZ
| 8 Aug | H | vs Den Haag | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Utrecht | 4–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Heerenveen | 3–2 | W |
Telstar
| 8 Aug | A | vs NEC | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ajax | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cambuur | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Twente | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AZ (Home · 5 matches) | Telstar (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.00 |
Home stats use AZ's home record; away stats use Telstar's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.