AZ vs Groningen — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
AZ
63%
Draw
20%
Groningen
17%
Expected goals
2.23–1.30
AZ · Groningen
AZ win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (12.3%), 1–1 (8.3%), 3–1 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 67% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
AZ score at least twice in 68%; Groningen in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Groningen goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: AZ goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 24% | 32% |
| Market reference | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 20% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| AZ | 1.54 |
| Draw | 4.69 |
| Groningen | 5.27 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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AZ
| 8 Aug | H | vs Den Haag | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Utrecht | 4–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Heerenveen | 3–2 | W |
Groningen
| 9 Aug | H | vs Utrecht | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Den Haag | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs PSV | 1–5 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Twente | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AZ (Home · 5 matches) | Groningen (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 4.60 |
Home stats use AZ's home record; away stats use Groningen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.