Ajax vs AZ — Eredivisie forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Ajax
52%
Draw
22%
AZ
26%
Expected goals
2.16–1.42
Ajax · AZ
Ajax win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9.3%), 2–1 (8.4%), 1–2 (6.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 67% of simulations.
Those three cover 24% of outcomes; the other 76% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Ajax win is 2–1 (8.4%).
Ajax score at least twice in 63%; AZ in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
AZ goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: Ajax goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Market reference | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 22% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Ajax | 1.84 |
| Draw | 4.21 |
| AZ | 3.67 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Ajax
| 9 Aug | A | vs PEC Zwolle | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Heerenveen | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Telstar | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs PSV | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Fortuna Sittard | 5–1 | W |
AZ
| 8 Aug | H | vs Den Haag | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Utrecht | 4–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Heerenveen | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Ajax (Home · 5 matches) | AZ (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 3.60 |
Home stats use Ajax's home record; away stats use AZ's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.