ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam — Eredivisie forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
ADO Den Haag
38%
Draw
26%
Sparta Rotterdam
36%
Expected goals
1.73–1.70
ADO Den Haag · Sparta Rotterdam
ADO Den Haag win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.1%), 2–1 (8.2%), 2–2 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 69% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
ADO Den Haag score at least twice in 52%; Sparta Rotterdam in 51%.
Scoreline distribution
Sparta Rotterdam goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ADO Den Haag goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| Market reference | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 26% | 36% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 2.53 |
| Draw | 3.62 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 2.67 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
No recent results.
Sparta Rotterdam
| 9 Aug | H | vs Feyenoord | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Telstar | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Utrecht | 3–3 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Excelsior | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | ADO Den Haag (Home · no matches) | Sparta Rotterdam (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 4.50 |
Home stats use ADO Den Haag's home record; away stats use Sparta Rotterdam's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.