ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen — Eredivisie forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
ADO Den Haag
22%
Draw
23%
Heerenveen
55%
Expected goals
1.17–1.96
ADO Den Haag · Heerenveen
Heerenveen win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.8%), 1–2 (9.8%), 0–2 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Heerenveen win is 1–2 (9.8%).
ADO Den Haag score at least twice in 33%; Heerenveen in 58%.
Scoreline distribution
Heerenveen goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ADO Den Haag goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 3.45 |
| Draw | 3.84 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Heerenveen
| 9 Aug | H | vs Twente | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Ajax | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Willem II | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs AZ | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | ADO Den Haag (Home · no matches) | Heerenveen (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.50 |
Home stats use ADO Den Haag's home record; away stats use Heerenveen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.