Viborg vs FC Nordsjaelland — Danish Superliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Viborg
31%
result
Draw
25%
FC Nordsjaelland
44%
top pick
Final score
4–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Viborg win 31.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a FC Nordsjaelland win. Expected goals 1.27–1.53 against 4–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.7%), 1–2 (9.6%), 0–1 (8.9%). It finished 4–1.
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Viborg
| 24 Jul | H | vs Odense | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Brondby | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Aug | A | vs Sonderjyske | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs AGF | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs FC Copenhagen | 4–0 | W |
FC Nordsjaelland
| 26 Jul | A | vs Horsens | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Randers | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Silkeborg | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sonderjyske | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Brondby | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Viborg (Home · 7 matches) | FC Nordsjaelland (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 42.9% | 71.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.1% | 57.1% |
| Clean sheet | 42.9% | 14.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.71 | 3.43 |
Home stats use Viborg's home record; away stats use FC Nordsjaelland's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.