Sonderjyske vs Randers — Danish Superliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sonderjyske
35%
result
Draw
25%
Randers
40%
top pick
Final score
4–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Sonderjyske win 34.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Randers win. Expected goals 1.30–1.42 against 4–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–2 (8.9%), 0–1 (8.8%). It finished 4–2.
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Sonderjyske
| 26 Jul | H | vs Midtjylland | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Aug | A | vs Odense | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Aug | H | vs Viborg | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Aug | A | vs Brondby | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs FC Nordsjaelland | 0–3 | L |
Randers
| 27 Jul | H | vs Silkeborg | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | A | vs FC Nordsjaelland | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Lyngby | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs FC Copenhagen | 0–4 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Midtjylland | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sonderjyske (Home · 7 matches) | Randers (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 42.9% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 71.4% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.86 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Sonderjyske's home record; away stats use Randers's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.