Randers vs Brondby — Danish Superliga forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Randers
26%
Draw
25%
Brondby
49%
Expected goals
1.12–1.63
Randers · Brondby
Brondby win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.7%), 0–1 (10.0%), 1–2 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Brondby win is 0–1 (10.0%).
Randers score at least twice in 31%; Brondby in 49%.
Scoreline distribution
Brondby goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Randers goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| Market reference | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Metis Forecast | 26% | 25% | 49% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Randers | 3.68 |
| Draw | 3.89 |
| Brondby | 1.95 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Randers
| 27 Jul | H | vs Silkeborg | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | A | vs FC Nordsjaelland | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Lyngby | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs FC Copenhagen | 0–4 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Midtjylland | 0–1 | L |
Brondby
| 25 Jul | A | vs AGF | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Viborg | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Horsens | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Aug | H | vs Sonderjyske | 3–2 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Silkeborg | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
| 6 Sept 26 | BrondbyvsRanders FC | 0 – 3 |
Randers: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Randers (Home · 6 matches) | Brondby (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Randers's home record; away stats use Brondby's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.