FC Nordsjaelland vs Midtjylland — Danish Superliga forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
FC Nordsjaelland
43%
Draw
24%
Midtjylland
32%
Expected goals
1.50–1.30
FC Nordsjaelland · Midtjylland
FC Nordsjaelland win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (10.0%), 1–0 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely FC Nordsjaelland win is 2–1 (10.0%).
FC Nordsjaelland score at least twice in 45%; Midtjylland in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Midtjylland goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FC Nordsjaelland goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 27% | 36% |
| Market reference | 43% | 24% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 24% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| FC Nordsjaelland | 2.21 |
| Draw | 3.86 |
| Midtjylland | 2.95 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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FC Nordsjaelland
| 26 Jul | A | vs Horsens | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Randers | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Silkeborg | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sonderjyske | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Brondby | 3–1 | W |
Midtjylland
| 26 Jul | A | vs Sonderjyske | 3–2 | W |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Horsens | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Lyngby | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Randers | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Silkeborg | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 7 Sept 26 | MidtjyllandvsNordsjaelland | 2 – 2 |
FC Nordsjaelland: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | FC Nordsjaelland (Home · 5 matches) | Midtjylland (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 80.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 1.60 | 2.67 |
Home stats use FC Nordsjaelland's home record; away stats use Midtjylland's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.