Zbrojovka Brno vs Jablonec — Czech First League forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Zbrojovka Brno
vs
13:00
Jablonec
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Zbrojovka Brno
38%
Draw
28%
Jablonec
34%
Expected goals
1.42–1.28
Zbrojovka Brno · Jablonec
Zbrojovka Brno win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–2 (8.6%), 0–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Zbrojovka Brno score at least twice in 41%; Jablonec in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Jablonec goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 13.2 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Zbrojovka Brno goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market reference | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Zbrojovka Brno
| 19 Sept | A | vs Mlada Boleslav | 0–2 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.